A new national survey conducted by Abacus Data from July 4 to 9, 2024 reveals that the Conservative Party maintains a significant lead in Canadian federal politics. 

The poll, which sampled 1,989 Canadian adults, indicates that if an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would support the Conservatives, while the Liberals and NDP would receive 23% and 18% respectively.

The Conservative Party’s lead has strengthened in several key regions, including British Columbia, Ontario, and the Prairie provinces. In Quebec, however, the Bloc Québécois remains the frontrunner with 38% support.

Demographic analysis shows the Conservatives leading across all age groups, with a notable increase in support among younger voters aged 18 to 29. The gender gap in voting preferences, previously a factor in Canadian politics, appears to have diminished.

Adding to this trend, a recent Mainstreet poll projects a dramatic shift in seat distribution. The model suggests the Conservatives could win 245 seats, a gain of 126, while the Liberals might drop to just 44 seats, losing 116. 

This would result in a Conservative majority government. The projection also indicates minor changes for other parties, with the Bloc Québécois gaining 3 seats, the NDP losing 8, and the Greens maintaining their current position.

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