Abacus Data’s September 19 to 25, 2024 survey reveals that the New Democratic Party has surpassed the Liberal Party for second place outside of Quebec. The survey, which polled 1,700 Canadian adults, shows the Conservative Party maintaining a substantial lead nationwide.

According to the poll, if an election were held today, the Conservatives would secure 43% of committed voters, followed by the Liberals at 21% and the NDP at 19%. The Green Party trails at 5%, while the Bloc Québécois holds 37% of the vote in Quebec.

The NDP now commands 22% of the vote outside of Quebec, edging out the Liberals at 19%. The Conservatives continue to dominate in these regions, enjoying a substantial 50% support among voters. This realignment suggests a significant change in the traditional political landscape, with potential implications for future electoral strategies and coalition-building efforts.

Regionally, the Conservative Party leads in all provinces except Quebec, with significant margins in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads, with the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives.

Focusing on the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 20%, way behind the Conservative Party’s 46%.

Despite a slight improvement in the overall mood of the country and a marginal increase in the federal government’s approval rating, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s personal approval remains low. Conversely, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre maintains a narrow positive net score, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has seen an increase in both positive and negative impressions.

The survey also explored Canadians’ expectations of a potential Conservative government. A majority believe the Conservatives would eliminate the national carbon tax and make significant changes to social programs. However, there are concerns about the party’s stance on climate change, immigration, and social issues like abortion and healthcare.

Nanos says NDP is #2

The numbers are even better for NDP in a new Nanos Poll. A survey conducted on September 27 on 1,059 adults saw Liberals falling four percentage points and NDP rising to second with a one percentage point lead. The Conservatives still dominate by 20 percentage points.

Information for this story was found via Abacus Data, and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.