President Joe Biden is no longer leading the odds for becoming the Democratic Party’s nominee for the upcoming presidential election. Following his widely criticized debate performance last week, prediction platforms are reporting a significant shift in odds.
Polymarket, a prominent prediction market, has seen Biden’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination plummet from 90% to 49% in less than a week. This sharp downturn has been accompanied by a surge in Vice President Kamala Harris’s prospects, with her odds rising from a mere 1% to 35% in the same period.
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Similar trends have been observed on PredictIt, another prediction platform, where Biden’s odds have fallen to 40%, placing him on par with Harris. This marks a stark contrast to his consistently strong position above 84% prior to the debate.
The shifting landscape has also impacted predictions for the general election outcome. On PredictIt, former President Donald Trump now leads with a 58% chance of winning, followed by Harris at 21% and Biden at 19%. This suggests that betting markets currently view Harris as a more viable candidate against Trump than the incumbent president.
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Taking it a step further (or lower), Polymarket says there’s a 53% chance that Biden will withdraw from the race before the Democratic convention which begins August 19.
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