Trade flows between China and the US are collapsing at an alarming pace, as container ship departures and cargo tonnage plunge to levels reminiscent of the pandemic era.
According to the latest shipping data, the number of container ships departing China for the US has sharply declined, with both used and total vessel capacity plummeting to lows unseen since early 2020.
The collapse is not just in ship counts; container ship tonnage — a measure of cargo volume — has dropped dramatically as well, with total TEUs falling by more than 200,000 units from mid-2024 peaks to April 2025.
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“The consequence will be empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and COVID-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Apollo warned in a statement via The Transcript.
The Port of Seattle, the nation’s fourth busiest, currently shows “zero cargo ships docked or en route,” according to observers, a stunning reversal for a terminal historically overrun with freight. Parallel reports indicate that up to 40% of vessels leaving China are traveling completely empty, while shipping container volumes are down by as much as 80%.
Data from major ports across the US echoes the severity: the Port of New York and New Jersey expect container volumes to plunge by 40% year-over-year starting this week, with similar forecasts emerging from the Port of Los Angeles.
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book also flagged an escalation in tariff-related concerns, pointing to widespread disruption across industries reliant on Chinese imports.
READ: Shipping Collapse Accelerates as Tariffs Trigger COVID-Level Disruption
The underlying issue is not merely trade slowdown — it’s the unprecedented speed and breadth of the tariff implementation. As one report bluntly concluded, this rollout has created “a supply shock on par with what was seen during COVID,” but without the pandemic’s health crisis to trigger emergency stimulus or policy interventions.
Unless tariffs are reversed immediately — a scenario analysts deem unlikely — the US economy may be entering a severe supply-side crunch that could drag into 2026. Even an immediate policy reversal would still leave global shipping networks crippled for another 7–9 months, experts warn.
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