OPEC and its allies are weighing a pause to their fast-tracked production revival once the final 550,000-barrel-per-day tranche of their current plan lands in September, delegates familiar with the private talks said this week. The discussion—still “at an early stage,” according to one delegate—would halt any further unwinding of the alliance’s remaining 1.66 million bpd of voluntary cuts until market conditions stabilize.
Saudi Arabia and its closest partners have already penciled in the last slice of their 2.2 million bpd rollback for September. A video conference of the eight key OPEC+ ministers on August 3 will finalize the schedule, while a full ministerial meeting in early August will decide whether to stand pat thereafter.
Brent fell 0.9% to US$69.57 a barrel on Wednesday, erasing part of this month’s rally. Futures had surged after OPEC+ surprised markets in April by accelerating its supply comeback—a move that chased benchmark prices from the mid-seventies into the high-sixties and drew open praise from President Donald Trump for easing pump price pressures.
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Yet the cartel’s sprint back to pre-cut output has exposed familiar strains in execution. A Reuters-led survey found Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates lifted production by only 180,000 bpd in May—roughly 40% short of their pledge. Iraq even trimmed barrels to make up for earlier overproduction, echoing Kazakhstan’s recent struggle with quota discipline.
A pause could therefore serve two purposes. First, it would buy time for serial overproducers to close compliance gaps without forcing a formal penalty phase that could fracture the alliance. Second, it would test whether the roughly $4 slide in Brent since April is enough to stoke demand without triggering another price rout that would erode members’ fiscal cushions.
All eyes now turn to the ministerial call next month, where the Saudi-led core will test consensus on parking further hikes.
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