Half of Canadians say their government should refuse to budge on the country’s dairy protection system even if it triggers US retaliation, according to a new poll released as President Donald Trump threatens 35% tariffs on all Canadian goods by August 1.
The Angus Reid Institute survey found 50% of Canadians want Prime Minister Mark Carney to stand firm on supply management, while 35% would put the system on the table as a last resort, and 15% would offer to end it outright. The findings underscore the political sensitivity of a trade issue that has become Trump’s primary target in renewed negotiations.
Trump has repeatedly made false claims about the policy, alleging Canada imposes 250% to 400% tariffs on US dairy products. In reality, these high tariffs only apply to imports above quota levels that US exporters have never reached, with average quota fill rates below 27% for most products.
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Since the 1970s, Canada has operated a supply management framework that regulates domestic production levels and pricing for dairy, eggs, and poultry, using import restrictions to shield farmers from foreign competition. Parliament recently enacted legislation aimed at blocking negotiators from weakening these agricultural protections in trade talks.
Read: How Quebec’s Dairy Quotas Block Trade and Hurt Consumers—And Why Supply Management Must End
The poll of 1,697 Canadians, conducted July 9-13, comes as Trump has escalated threats against Canada, proposing the 35% tariff unless a revised trade agreement is finalized by August 1. Canada has already faced targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts this year.
“Dairy seems to sit in his brain,” said Philip Armstrong, partner at Armstrong Manor Farm in Caledon, Ontario. “So we’ve kind of got immune to it… There’s not much you can do about [the threats].”
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Trade experts say the agricultural system remains politically untouchable in Canada, where dairy farms are concentrated in the vote-rich provinces of Ontario and Quebec. Gabriel Brunet, spokesperson for Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, reiterated this week that “our supply management system will never be on the table”.
Read: Carney Rules Out Supply Management in US Trade Talks
Despite Trump’s complaints, bilateral dairy trade has actually grown substantially, with American producers shipping over $1.1 billion worth of products to Canada last year — up 55% from 2020 levels. None of these exports faced the punitive tariffs Trump describes, and Canada ranks as the second-biggest market worldwide for US dairy.
The poll found Canadians drawing hard lines on other Trump demands as well, with 72% opposing increased US access to Canadian water resources and 66% rejecting priority access to critical minerals.
The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
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