Prediction-market odds that the US will send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine surged after President Donald Trump publicly backed a “Coalition of the Willing” and declined to rule out deploying American troops.
On Polymarket, traders now price the probability at roughly 15%, up more than 9 percentage points on the day.
Trump, speaking at the White House with President Volodymyr Zelensky and a slate of European leaders, said he expects tangible movement on Ukraine’s security guarantees.
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“We will come to a resolution today, I think, on almost everything, including probably the security,” he said, adding that “collectively, we can reach an agreement that would deter any future aggression against Ukraine.” He also claimed that after his recent session with Vladimir Putin, Russia “would accept security guarantees for Ukraine”—a point central to the framework he’s pursuing.
European leaders stood beside Zelensky to press a consistent message: any peace must rest on support for Ukraine.
“If we want to reach peace and if we want to guarantee justice, we have to do it united,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said, pledging that “you can obviously count on Italy.” Finnish President Alexander Stubb underlined that it is “team Europe and team United States helping Ukraine.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the gathering a potential “historic step,” saying Trump’s proposal for “Article-5 style” guarantees aligns with months of European work under a “Coalition of the Willing.”
Germany’s leader, Friedrich Merz, argued a ceasefire should precede deeper talks: “I can’t imagine that the next meeting would take place without a ceasefire.”
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Trump pushed back on making a ceasefire a precondition: “If we can do the ceasefire, great. And if we don’t… we just got into negotiations,” he said, claiming past conflict deals he brokered did not start with a truce.
French President Emmanuel Macron nonetheless stressed Europe is “united” and ready to back robust guarantees, but said a “truce or a ceasefire” is necessary to enable the trilateral format Trump wants to convene after separate Putin–Zelensky talks.
Zelensky signaled satisfaction with the session. He called it “the best meeting we’ve had with Trump,” framing security guarantees as “the starting point for ending the war.”
He said the US will participate in the guarantees and that details should be worked out “within 10 days.” He listed aircraft and air-defense systems as priorities and referenced a $90 billion package tied to the guarantees, while stating Ukraine “will not insist on a ceasefire” as a precondition to further talks.
He also cited US help on returning abducted children and an “all for all” prisoner exchange.
Several side notes colored the day’s signaling. One monitoring feed pointed to Russian Tu-95MS bomber activity from Olenya, suggesting possible long-range strike preparations as the meeting concluded. Financial Times reported that Zelensky floated a $100 billion weapons-production initiative—including a $50 billion UAV program with US partners—to anchor the guarantees.
Information for this briefing was found via Kyiv Independent and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
