OPEC+ will likely approve at least a 137,000-barrel-per-day increase in November at its October 5 online meeting, with sources citing Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure that helped lift prices above $70.
Since reversing its cut strategy in April, the group has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd (about 2.4% of world demand) to claw back market share amid pressure from President Donald Trump to lower prices.
Benchmark prices, which started the year above $80 per barrel, have mostly sat in a $60–$70 range since the April pivot. On Friday, they hit the highest level since August 1, moving above $70 as drone strikes disrupted Russian refining and shipments.
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The prospective November hike matches October’s pace. For October, OPEC+ began unwinding a second layer of cuts (1.65 million bpd) with a 137,000 bpd increase, after eight producers fully removed a separate 2.2 million bpd voluntary layer by end-September.
The UAE also received approval to add 300,000 bpd between April and September.
At their peak, OPEC+ reductions totaled 5.85 million bpd across three elements: 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts, 1.65 million bpd by eight members, and a 2.0 million bpd group-wide layer. While quotas have risen, actual output has lagged pledges because many members are pumping at capacity.
The third, group-wide 2.0 million bpd cut remains in force through end-2026, meaning the cartel is adding barrels from the first two layers while the final layer stays intact.
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