Venezuela’s economy posted robust growth through 2025 even as the Trump administration deployed the largest US military force in the Caribbean since the Cold War.
Venezuela’s Central Bank reported GDP expanded 9.32% in the first quarter, driven by 18.23% growth in oil production. Growth continued with 6.65% in the second quarter and 8.71% in the third quarter, marking 18 consecutive quarters of expansion.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean projected in December that Venezuela would lead South American growth at 6.5% for 2025, more than double the regional average of 2.4%.
This occurred as Operation Southern Spear, launched in September, saw the US military conduct more than 20 strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels. On December 29, Trump announced the first US strike on Venezuelan territory, targeting what he described as a drug-related docking facility.
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Read: Trump Weighs Drone Strikes on Drug Targets in Venezuela
The Trump administration deployed approximately 15,000 troops, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, and F-35 fighter jets. In December, Trump announced a naval blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and declared Venezuelan airspace “closed.” UN human rights experts criticized the actions as violations of international law.
Venezuela’s growth comes from a severely depressed baseline. GDP contracted approximately 80% between 2013 and 2023. Per capita GDP fell from $12,700 in 2012 to roughly $1,600 by 2020. Nearly 7.8 million Venezuelans have fled the country over the past decade.
Read: Trump Orders Naval Blockade of Venezuelan Oil Tankers, Lawmakers Call It ‘Act of War’
Oil production drives the recent expansion. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, but output plummeted from over 3 million barrels daily in the 1990s to below 400,000 barrels in 2020. Production has recovered to approximately 850,000 barrels daily, partly through US company Chevron‘s operations under special license.
The government began liberalizing the economy in 2020, easing price controls and allowing dollar transactions. These measures helped stabilize hyperinflation that exceeded 130,000% in 2018.
Trump has accused Maduro of leading a drug cartel and designated the Cartel de los Soles, which allegedly involves Venezuelan military elites, as a foreign terrorist organization. Venezuela mobilized its armed forces and civilian militia in response to what it calls an imminent threat of invasion.
Read: Trump says US began land strikes in Venezuela… or did he?
CEPAL projects Venezuela’s growth will moderate to 3% in 2026, acknowledging uncertainty from escalating US pressure.
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