Gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by year-end, according to Société Générale analysts, who called the forecast “probably conservative” as prices could climb even higher under stress scenarios.
The French bank’s projection comes as gold traded abound $5,500 per ounce Wednesday evening, up approximately 23% year-to-date after surging 64% in 2025. The metal broke through the $5,000 barrier for the first time earlier this week, driven by safe-haven demand amid trade and geopolitical tensions.
Goldman Sachs reinforced the bullish outlook by raising its December 2026 forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, citing sustained private-sector diversification into bullion on top of strong central bank and exchange-traded fund demand. Analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas wrote in a January 21 note that hedges against perceived risks such as fiscal sustainability have become “sticky,” unlike previous trades tied to specific events like the November 2024 US election.
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Western ETF holdings increased by roughly 500 tons since early 2025, outpacing predictions based solely on US interest rate cuts.
Central bank purchases remain robust, with Goldman Sachs estimating monthly buying will average 60 tons in 2026 as emerging market monetary authorities continue diversifying reserves into gold. This pace exceeds the pre-2022 average of 17 tons per month.
The rally accelerated in 2025 when central banks began competing for limited bullion with private-sector investors through traditional ETF purchases, sparked by Federal Reserve rate cuts. Goldman Sachs expects an additional 50 basis points of Fed easing in 2026.
The bank noted risks to its upgraded forecast remain “significantly skewed to the upside” because private-sector investors may diversify further amid lingering global policy uncertainty. High-net-worth families increasingly purchase physical gold as part of what analysts call the “debasement trade,” driven by growing uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policies in major economies.
Gold extended gains this week after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and raised duties on South Korean autos, lumber, and pharmaceutical drugs. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting this week, with markets expecting unchanged rates but scrutinizing Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks amid White House pressure for lower rates.
The sustained rally reflects heightened investor caution and continued demand for safe assets in an uncertain global environment, with spot gold marking its seventh straight session of gains.
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