A planned US$2.8 billion uranium export deal between Canada and India would anchor a broader reset in nuclear and trade relations after a two-year diplomatic rupture and mark a step change from their last uranium contract in 2015.
People familiar with the talks say the pact being finalized in Ottawa would run for about 10 years, with terms still subject to modification before the formal announcement.
Under the prospective deal, Canada’s Cameco would supply the fuel, giving the company long dated revenue visibility that materially exceeds the roughly US$350 million value of its previous five-year supply agreement with India signed in 2015. On a simple comparison, the new pact would be about eight times larger in headline value than that earlier contract.
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The Indian government has already signalled the framework in public, stating that both sides reaffirmed their longstanding civil nuclear co-operation and are discussing expanded collaboration, including long-term uranium supply arrangements. India currently operates about 25 nuclear reactors and has six more under construction, many of them pressurized heavy water units derived from the Canadian Candu design, which structurally locks in a need for reliable access to compatible fuel.
For Cameco, the emerging pact would extend its role as a core supplier to one of the world’s fastest growing nuclear markets, although the company has refused to discuss specifics. In an emailed statement, spokesperson Veronica Baker said that unless otherwise disclosed all commercial contracts are confidential, underlining that neither pricing formulas nor annual volume allocations are likely to be detailed publicly.
The deal is being negotiated against a trade baseline that remains modest by Canada’s standards. In 2024, Canada exported US$5.3 billion in goods to India while importing US$8 billion, compared with almost US$600 billion in exports to the United States and about US$30 billion to China. Spread evenly over a decade, a US$2.8 billion uranium pact would average roughly US$280 million a year in sales.
Politically, the agreement would mark a sharp pivot from September 2023, when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of involvement in the assassination of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia and relations went into deep freeze. Ottawa had already banned uranium and nuclear hardware exports to India in the 1970s after New Delhi used Canadian technology to develop nuclear weapons, and only reversed that position after the Canada-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement took effect in 2013.
The uranium pact is also intertwined with a wider economic reset. On Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to pursue a comprehensive economic partnership and restart trade talks that had been shelved for two years.
Information for this story was found via The Globe And Mail and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
