Canada’s housing market showed signs of cooling in June, with total housing starts dropping 9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 241,672 units, down from 264,929 in May, according to data released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
The six-month trend in housing starts also saw a slight decrease of 0.4% to 247,205 units in June from 248,260 units in May. This trend measure, which uses a six-month moving average of the monthly SAAR, provides a more stable indicator of housing market activity.
Urban centres with populations over 10,000 experienced a significant year-over-year decline of 13% in actual housing starts, primarily driven by a 16% drop in multi-unit construction. Two of Canada’s major cities, Toronto and Vancouver, saw substantial decreases in housing starts compared to June 2023, with declines of 60% and 55% respectively. In contrast, Montreal bucked the trend with a remarkable 226% increase, largely due to heightened multi-unit activity.
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Despite the overall decline, the first half of 2024 showed a modest 4% year-over-year increase in housing starts across Canada’s six largest Census Metropolitan Areas. This growth was primarily driven by stronger performance in Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal, which offset decreases in Vancouver, Toronto, and Ottawa.
The divergent trends across major urban centers highlight the regional nature of Canada’s housing market. While high interest rates and weak condominium pre-construction sales appear to be negatively impacting Vancouver and Toronto, Montreal has seen a significant uptick in apartment starts, rebounding 63% from an 8-year low in 2023.
Information for this briefing was found via CMHC and the sources mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
