China’s coal production is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2025, marking its ninth consecutive year of growth, as the world’s largest coal consumer continues to prioritize energy security, the country’s top industry association said on Wednesday.
The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association forecasts output will reach 4.82 billion tons in 2025, following a 0.8% rise to 4.75 billion tons in 2024. Demand is projected to grow 1%, driven by power generation and chemical production despite weakness in construction and metals sectors.
Coal imports are expected to decline 1.9% to 525 million tons in 2025, after jumping 13% to 535 million tons in 2024, according to CCTD analyst Feng Huaming.
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The northern province of Shanxi, China’s biggest coal producer, is expected to boost production in 2025 after safety inspections limited output last year. Other coal-rich regions including Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Guizhou and Ningxia are also likely to increase production to offset declining property tax revenues.
High stockpiles are expected to pressure domestic benchmark thermal coal prices, which could fall to 630-730 yuan per ton in the second quarter, CCTD said.
Official data for China’s 2024 coal output and imports will be released next week.
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