China plans to ban sulfuric acid exports starting in May 2026, a move set to jolt global metals and fertilizer industries already grappling with supply chain disruptions from the ongoing Iran conflict. The restriction, communicated to producers and buyers, targets sulfuric acid produced as a by-product of copper and zinc smelting, exacerbating an already tight market.
The timing couldn’t be worse. Sulfuric acid prices have soared since the Iran war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking sulfur shipments from the Middle East, which supplies a third of the world’s sulfur—a critical input for the acid. This chemical is vital for certain copper extraction processes and phosphate fertilizer production, leaving industries in a bind as China prioritizes domestic needs during peak crop-planting season.
Chile, the world’s top copper producer, stands to take a significant hit. The country imports over 1 million tons of sulfuric acid annually from China, with roughly 20% of its copper output reliant on acid-dependent processing. Prices in Chile have already spiked, and analysts warn of further increases if the ban extends through 2026.
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“If the suspension is enforced for the full year, the Chileans will be faced with even higher prices than we are seeing today,” said Sarah Marlow, an acid editor at Argus.
Other copper-heavy nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia will also feel the squeeze, alongside nickel producers in Indonesia, as the loss of Chinese volumes compounds a parallel shortage of sulfur feedstocks. Peter Harrisson, an acid analyst at CRU, noted that replacing these volumes will be nearly impossible under current conditions.
The broader implications for global commodity markets are stark. Copper, already under pressure from geopolitical risks, could see production constraints ripple through to higher prices, impacting everything from construction to electric vehicle manufacturing. Fertilizer costs, too, may climb as phosphate production struggles, potentially affecting food supply chains during a critical agricultural window.
China’s Ministry of Commerce has yet to confirm the duration of the ban, though some reports suggest it could last the entirety of 2026. For now, the market is left to contend with a supply gap that shows no immediate signs of closing, with Chile’s copper sector alone facing potential output losses tied to the unavailability of over 200,000 tons of acid-equivalent processing capacity this year.
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