Enbridge (TSX: ENB), a leading Canadian pipeline operator, projects a sharp rise in re-exports of Canadian heavy crude from U.S. Gulf Coast terminals over the next decade, driven by a wave of pipeline expansions set to boost capacity.
Colin Gruending, president of liquids pipelines at Enbridge, highlighted that between 200,000 and 400,000 barrels per day of Canadian crude are currently re-exported from the Gulf Coast. He expects this figure to climb significantly as new infrastructure comes online. Speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Gruending pointed to emerging demand from markets like India and several African nations as key drivers for this growth.
Enbridge is spearheading multiple projects to support the anticipated surge. Last fall, the company greenlit expansions for its Mainline and Flanagan South pipelines, adding a combined 250,000 bpd of capacity to transport Canadian heavy oil to the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast by 2027. A potential second phase of the Mainline expansion, which could be operational by 2028, would tack on another 250,000 bpd.
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Competing initiatives are also reshaping the landscape. South Bow, in partnership with Bridger Pipeline, is exploring a revival of segments of the cancelled Keystone XL pipeline, a move that could lift Canada’s oil exports to the U.S. by over 12%. Separately, the Trans Mountain pipeline, which shifted significant export volumes to British Columbia’s Pacific coast in 2024, plans enhancements that could increase its capacity by 360,000 bpd.
Enbridge’s broader outlook underscores the scale of growth ahead. The company forecasts Canadian oil production to rise by 1 million bpd by 2035, building on the 5.3 million bpd average output recorded in 2025 by the Canada Energy Regulator.
With Enbridge’s network already handling roughly 30% of North America’s crude oil, its expanded infrastructure will play a central role in channeling this supply to global markets.
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