Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure on contracted supplies from its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia after a mud-rush earlier this month halted the district.
The company said a sudden rush of around 800,000 metric tons of wet material moved rapidly across multiple levels, killing two workers and five remain missing. Operations in the Grasberg minerals district have been suspended since then while search and recovery and damage assessments continue.
“We are grieving for our coworkers lost in this tragic incident and extend our sincere condolences to the families who lost loved ones,” leadership said.
Freeport confirmed it is notifying commercial counterparties of a contractual force majeure—an established clause that excuses performance when extraordinary events beyond a party’s control prevent fulfillment—while it repairs infrastructure and revises mine plans.
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Grasberg Block Cave accounts for about 50% of PT Freeport Indonesia’s proven and probable reserves as of year-end 2024 and roughly 70% of PTFI’s previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029.
Unaffected Big Gossan and Deep MLZ could restart by mid-Q4 2025, while a phased ramp-up at the Grasberg Block Cave is slated to begin in H1 2026, with a return to pre-incident operating rates potentially in 2027. Under this scenario, 2026 production at PT Freeport Indonesia could be 35% below pre-incident estimates.
Copper futures jumped as high as $4.77 per pound and the company trimmed third-quarter sales guidance by 4% for copper and 6% for gold.
Meanwhile, Freeport fell as much as 17% in New York intraday, while peers Glencore, Teck Resources, and Antofagasta rose 3%–7%.
Analysts highlighted the structural hit and timeline. BMO flagged the preliminary 35% cut as an incremental negative and noted Freeport still derives around 60% of copper output from the Americas, a partial operational offset as Grasberg recovers. Others characterized the near-term setup as placing Freeport “in the penalty box,” even as tighter supply may support prices.
Goldman Sachs now projects the Grasberg disruption to remove around 250,000–260,000 copper tonnes in 2025 and around 270,000 tonnes in 2026, flipping its 2025 market view from a 105,000-tonne surplus to a 56,000-tonne deficit.
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