This morning Goldman Sachs released a new forecast for Q3 US GDP and showing a 34% annualized decline and reaching 15% unemployment. The new outlook shows a deeper recession than the previous report last week which predicted 9 percent unemployment and a 24 percent decline in Q2 GDP.
Goldman sees the virus causing an economic impact of around -13% in the month of April with the hospitality industry being his the hardest:
At the moment they see a strong recovery in the second half of the year; with some decline a result of the “second-round income effects”:
Goldman estimates slightly more than half the near-term output decline is made up by year-end with real GDP falling 6.2% in 2020 on an annual-average basis. In Q3, they see a “V-shape” recovery, with a a bigger bounce of 19 percent making up for lost production.
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Information for this briefing was found via Goldman Sachs. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
