The Trump administration is quietly developing plans for another multibillion-dollar farm bailout program as the president moves forward with sweeping global tariffs that economists warn could trigger devastating retaliation against American agricultural exports.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins revealed last week that Trump directed her to “have some programs in place that would potentially mitigate any economic catastrophes” resulting from his trade policies. The preparations underscore how the administration anticipates significant blowback from the president’s tariff strategy.
The upcoming emergency aid would mirror the expensive approach from Trump’s first term, when taxpayers funded approximately $23 billion in payments to farmers hurt by China’s retaliatory tariffs during the 2018 trade war. That assistance came through the Commodity Credit Corporation, a USDA funding mechanism with authority to borrow up to $30 billion from the Treasury Department.
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Experts caution that the financial impact could be substantially larger this time around, as Trump’s proposed tariffs target not just China but numerous countries simultaneously, including key allies like Europe, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. Their collective retaliation would likely cause more extensive damage to American farm exports.
“That could really lead to big demands in terms of trying to help farmers,” said Joseph Glauber, a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute and former USDA chief economist.
The potential cost of such a bailout contradicts Trump’s frequent claim that tariffs will generate revenue to help fund tax cut extensions. Instead, the plan would redirect taxpayer dollars to compensate farmers for market losses created by the administration’s own policies.
American agricultural producers expressed concerns about the approach. Kenneth Hartman Jr., president of the National Corn Growers Association’s Corn Board, worried about prolonged trade conflicts causing permanent damage to export relationships, noting that Mexico’s potential retaliation is “probably our biggest concern right now.”
The previous trade disputes initiated during Trump’s first administration resulted in a $27 billion loss in agricultural exports, according to USDA economists. While aid programs softened some of the financial blow, farmers complained the assistance was often slow, inadequate, and difficult to access.
Josh Gackle, chairman of the American Soybean Association, emphasized that farmers prefer “access to a free and fair trade market” over government aid packages that rarely compensate for the full value of lost international sales.
Questions remain about whether the USDA has sufficient funding available if multiple countries impose retaliatory measures simultaneously, potentially forcing the administration to seek additional congressional authorization during an already tense budget environment.
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