Prediction market Kalshi now prices the probability of President Donald Trump being impeached before 2028 at 72.4% — an all-time high — as the Iran crisis escalates and congressional Democrats intensify calls for his removal.
Kalshi operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, making it one of the few federally regulated venues for political event contracts. The market reflects real money, not polling — traders stake capital on whether a specific outcome will occur.
A separate contract on whether Trump will be impeached and removed from office sits considerably lower, at 27%, reflecting the much higher constitutional bar for conviction.
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The spike tracks a sequence of escalations since early April. On April 7, Trump posted on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” ahead of an ultimatum to Iran, prompting more than 50 House Democrats — including Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ro Khanna, and Rashida Tlaib, along with Senators Ed Markey and Chris Murphy, are calling for impeachment or the invocation of the 25th Amendment. Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) formally introduced articles of impeachment the same day, citing what he called Trump’s “serial usurpation of the congressional war power and commission of murder, war crimes and piracy.”
On Monday, Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran does not accept US terms before the April 22 ceasefire deadline, hours before Iran launched drone attacks on US naval vessels in the Sea of Oman.
Related: Iran Strikes US Naval Vessels With Drones as Ceasefire Teeters Before April 22 Deadline
Republicans control both the House and Senate, and no organized Republican bloc has moved toward supporting removal. Impeachment requires a simple majority in the House, while conviction and removal requires a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate — a threshold that would demand more than 20 Republican senators to break with their party.
Vice President JD Vance, whose buy-in would be required to invoke the 25th Amendment, has remained publicly supportive of Trump. The White House dismissed the calls for removal as “pathetic” and “deranged.”
Democrats are favored to win the House in the November 2026 midterms — a scenario Trump himself has flagged, telling Republican lawmakers at a January retreat that he would face a third impeachment if the GOP loses its majority.
Trump was impeached in 2019 over the Ukraine scandal and again in 2021 following January 6, becoming the only US president impeached twice. He was acquitted by the Senate both times.
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