The US has allegedly started drafting countermeasures that would require export licenses for software sent to China if ongoing negotiations fail.
The contemplated licensing regime would shift the control point from hardware to code, covering software shipments into China, framed as a contingency to be triggered only if talks falter.
The rumored countermeasures surface in a week of rapid escalation. On October 10, the White House imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and said new export controls on “critical software” would take effect on November 1.
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Tensions are also spreading to logistics and permitting. On October 14, both countries began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping, adding costs for cargo ranging from energy to consumer goods.
China, for its part, has tightened its own controls—most visibly on rare-earths and magnets—by adding license hurdles and case-by-case reviews that complicate access for overseas defense and semiconductor users.
US trade officials have indicated that a leader-level meeting remains possible later this month, but Beijing recently deferred an outreach call after its expanded export-control announcement, leaving the timeline for any additional US software licensing rule dependent on whether negotiations regain momentum.
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