The US housing market entered the spring selling season in its weakest buyer position on record, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 630,000 — a gap that widened further last week as the Iran war pushed mortgage rates to their highest level since October.
Redfin data for February showed an estimated 1.99 million active sellers against 1.36 million buyers — a 46.3% disparity and the largest in records going back to 2013, up from 449,409 a year earlier. Canceled contracts hit a record high for February. On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales fell 3.6% in March to an annualized 3.98 million — the lowest since June 2025 and below analyst expectations.
Affordability remains the ceiling. Home prices rose 40% nationally between 2020 and 2025, while incomes grew roughly 25% over the same period. Mortgage rates remain near 6.9% — still far above the sub-3% rates that ignited the pandemic buying boom.
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Oil price fears and rising defense spending have spiked Treasury yields, pushing mortgage rates to their highest since October. Mortgage applications plunged 10.5% last week — a damaging signal for a spring selling season that drives 40% of annual home sales.
“High housing costs and economic uncertainty have caused many house hunters to retreat,” Redfin said.
The imbalance is sharpest in Sun Belt cities that boomed during the pandemic remote-work surge. In Miami, sellers outnumber buyers by 163%. Nashville stands at 120%, Austin at 112%, West Palm Beach at 110%, and San Antonio at 104%. Builders rushed to meet pandemic demand in these markets, leaving a glut of unsold inventory as affordability constraints squeezed buyers out. Forty-three of the 53 largest US metros now carry over seven months of supply, with Miami approaching a full year’s worth.
Price declines are sharpest in Florida: Cape Coral down 9.6%, with North Port, Tampa, and Palm Bay all posting significant drops through February. The only bright spots are Rust Belt cities that never got expensive: Kansas City up 8.6%, Pittsburgh up 5.8%, and Cleveland up 5.9%.
More sellers than buyers means more leverage for buyers — in theory. “Of course, it’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy,” Redfin noted.
Median home prices rose to $405,400 in December — their 30th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Despite the record seller surplus, prices are not collapsing nationally, stagnating or declining only in the most oversupplied markets. The median monthly mortgage payment remains $2,559, down nearly 5% year-over-year but still far above pre-pandemic levels.
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