A looming copper shortage threatens to stall artificial intelligence development and clean energy expansion as global demand surges 50% by 2040, according to a S&P Global study released this month.
Copper demand will jump from 28 million metric tons in 2025 to 42 million metric tons by 2040. Without new mining investment, supply will fall 10 million metric tons short.
The United States designated copper a critical mineral in November 2025, the first time the metal received this status, reflecting supply chain concerns as AI, electric vehicles, and defense systems drive consumption.
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Data centers consumed 4% of US electricity in 2024, according to the Pew Research Center. That figure will hit 14% by 2030. The International Energy Agency projects global data center electricity use will double to 945 terawatt-hours by 2030.
Related: IEA Warns Copper Supply to Face 30% Deficit by 2035
AI-related copper demand will more than double from 1.1 million metric tons in 2025 to 2.5 million metric tons by 2040. Each megawatt of AI training capacity requires up to 47 metric tons of copper.
Electric vehicles now account for more than a quarter of global car sales, Ember research shows. Each EV uses 2.9 times more copper than gasoline cars — 72 kilograms versus 25 kilograms.
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EV copper demand will climb from 2.6 million metric tons in 2025 to 6.3 million metric tons by 2040. China passed 50% EV market share in 2025. Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand now exceed EU adoption rates.
Meeting electricity demand requires $7.5 trillion in transmission and distribution investment through 2040. Global electricity consumption will rise nearly 50% by 2040.
Copper demand from power infrastructure will reach 7.1 million metric tons by 2040, double the 2020 level. The metal represents 66% of underground cable weight and remains irreplaceable for its conductivity and durability.
New mines take 17 years from discovery to production due to permitting delays. Ore grades keep declining, making extraction costlier. China controls 40% to 50% of global smelting capacity.
Defense and renewable energy add pressure. Solar and wind systems each use about 2.2 metric tons of copper per megawatt. Defense copper consumption will triple by 2040.
Recycling could provide one-quarter of 2040 demand but cannot close the gap alone.
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One Response
The blackswan for this scenario is the technology adoption of 800 Volt DC power supply inside all AI data centres which
A) reduces Cu copper utilization by 50% ,
B) reduces drastically heat loss of Copper and the cooling heat mangement nightmare
C) increase efficiency of dat centres by 5% +
probability of 800 Volt DC ( investors in the technology Vertiv , NVDA among many others )